The Coming Communications Boom

Here’s a link to a memo that I just wrote for the Progressive Policy Institute, entitled 

The Coming Communications Boom? Jobs, Innovation and Countercyclical Regulatory Policy

I’m going to be writing more on countercyclical regulatory policy.

Added: Here’s a podcast from an interview I did.


  1. Nice analysis of the job trends, particularly the bit about the death of radio/TV broadcasting but the regulatory bit is way off. You continue to fantasize about omniscient regulators who can somehow pick “excesses” out, despite vast empirical evidence that no regulator has even been that smart. The best “regulators” have been people like Greenspan who actively deregulated or largely did nothing. In fact, regulatory policy basically has nothing to do with innovation, all it can do is effect innovation at the edges and is mostly about locking down existing industries. Two reasons for this, one, the regulators are too dumb to see where the future is going and put regulations in place ahead of time. Yes, they try anyway, but they only guess right rarely, based on blind chance, because when those morons try to guess, you can bet they’re wrong 99.999% of the time. Two, even when they try, the innovators are too smart and will just route around their laws, just as the explosion of derivatives this decade was largely created to sidestep existing financial regulations and capital requirements.

    There’s basically nothing anyone can do about fostering real innovation, public or private, because almost nobody is smart enough to know where it comes from. All you can do is hope and try to foster more experimentation and maybe some experiments pay off. In fact, downturns can help drive innovation because they highlight the stupidity of existing models, such as how the cratering of ad-funded models right now is leading to more paid online models at the moment.

  2. Ayjay – yeah, Greenspan was a great regulator – LOL!

    Mike Mandel you should write a book on this – there is a total dearth of optimistic business or futuristic books.

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