Bad News from Personal Income Report

In today’s personal income report from the BEA,  real personal consumption was up by 0.3%, which according to many commentators was a sign that the economy was improving. Bloomberg had a short piece with the headline:  

U.S. Stocks Rise as Consumer Spending Boosts Economic Optimism

But I look at the numbers and say something very different. I see that real personal income, leaving out transfer payments, fell in February for the second straight month.  So I would have written the headline a different way:

Consumers Keep Spending Because the Government is Giving Them Money

 The private sector shows no sign yet  organically generating growth.  That is to say, the real personal income generated by jobs and private businesses and investments is falling, once we omit the effect of government transfer payments, such as  unemployment insurance, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Here’s a little graph:

Not a good sign, by my lights.

Diamonds are a state’s best friend

According to the Census Bureau,  diamonds were New York State’s biggest goods export  in 2009 ($7 billion), followed by “paintings, drawings, and pastels by hand”

Interestingly enough, diamonds were also New York State’s biggest import in 2009, at roughly $10  billion.

The Growing Gap between Govt and Private Sector Benefits

When I was out in Kansas City at the Kauffman Foundation’s Economic Bloggers Forum,  Mish Shedlock of  the blog Global Economic Trend Analysis made a persuasive case that state and local finances were completely broken because gov’t workers were overpaid compared to the private sector. ( See here for one of his posts on the subject).

Mish got me thinking…So I decided to assemble some BLS data on the subject.

Not to mince words, here’s the payoff chart,  that compares the benefits of state and local workers with private sector workers. (These figures are adjusted for inflation, and indexed to 2001I=100).

Yowza! Somewhere in 2004, the world changed, and we didn’t realize it.  Employers in the private sector put a lid on the cost of benefits (which includes healthcare, retirement, vacation, and supplemental pay of all sorts).  Meanwhile the cost of benefits in state and local govt jobs just kept rising, with barely any break, both before and after the financial bust.  This is not good

To put it another way, the benefits gap between the public and private sectors has widened sharply since 2004.


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Has Venture Capital Failed America?

I’m at the Kauffman economic bloggers forum in Kansas City (you can view it on a live webcast if you want). One of the great joys of this forum is that it gives me a chance to meet people I otherwise would not come across, including Robert Cringeley, who is best known for his technology writings, but who also writes interesting stuff about finance. Here’s what he recently wrote on venture capital:

…let’s take a look at how venture capital has failed America….

The big VC hangover today was caused by this simple misunderstanding.  Firms thought they could scale-up their businesses and make even more money as a result.  If your $100 million venture fund is replaced by a $1 billion fund, why not just make every deal 10 times as big?  Because it doesn’t work that way.  Companies are over-capitalized.  Good deals are passed-over because they can’t absorb enough cash.  Money is wasted.  Founders are inevitably discarded and  alienated.  The rusted hulks of failed and over-funded startups are often forced to merge just to hide the real carnage.  Everybody ends of hating everybody else and that’s where we are today.

I think the venture capital industry  has been hit by the innovation shortfall.  Over the past ten years, the VCs put a lot of money into start-ups  that they thought was going to work.  Big bets in areas like biotech, MEMs and a variety of other cutting edge assets.

Unfortunately, the number of  big innovative wins over the past decade has been comparatively low, and the successful IPOs comparatively few.  To some unknown degree, there is a shared responsibility–a combination of government regulation that suppressed useful innovations; problems in the VC industry that led to funding the wrong companies; and bad coin flips on the technology, which meant that some things that we thought were going to work, didn’t–at least not yet.

Mystery chart 1

This is the first in our series of mystery charts, where I give you a chart and you guess what it is. I’ll make it easy–multiple choice.

Here’s the chart:

Is this chart:

a) the real wages of production workers

b) the profits of tech companies

c) the price of imports from China (as reported by the BLS).

d) the price of homes in Illinois

Answer beneath the fold. No peeking!

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The Innovation Shortfall Thesis spreads

My ‘innovation shortfall’  thesis has shown in up in Time magazine, of all places.  Michael Lind writes, in a piece called “The Boring Age”:

We like to believe we live in an era of unprecedented change: technological innovation is proceeding at a rate with no parallel in all of human history. The information revolution and globalization are radically disruptive. Just as Barack Obama would like to be a transformational President, so the rest of us like the idea that we live in a thrilling epoch of transformation. But the truth is that we are living in a period of stagnation.

Surprisingly, this stasis is most evident in an area where we assume we are way ahead of our predecessors: technology.

Next question: Will we recognize if and when the innovation shortfall ends?

Tyler Cowen and Healthcare Innovation

In today’s NYT, Tyler Cowen identifies the key point about healthcare reform (my emphasis added):

It’s time to consider which forms of managed care — relabeled, if necessary — are likely to maintain the flow of innovation while keeping costs under control.

I would go further.  Civilization has moved forward because of innovations that cut costs and extended capabilities simultaneously.  The current structure of healthcare seems to be producing ‘innovations’ that raise costs and don’t actually increase life expectancy.  I think that the main goal of healthcare reform should be to extend coverage and give more incentives for innovations that actually cut costs while producing better results.