This morning the retail spending statistics for December came out, and once again a large number of journalists got it wrong. By repeating the incorrect statement “consumer spending is 70% of the economy”, they are implicitly supporting the notion that business investment plus exports plus government only account for 30% of the economy altogether.
So rather than call out journalists by name this time, I’ve decided to be constructive. I’m going to give a free seminar in DC on “Interpreting the Economic Statistics in the New Global Economy.” I’ll cover:
*Why consumer spending is *not* 70% of the economy
*What really will drive growth
*The real difference between consumption and investment
*How to interpret the trade statistics
*What indicators are signs of real recovery.
*and more
If people are interested, drop me a note at mmandel@visibleeconomy.com. It will probably be in early February. If there’s enough interest, I’ll give one in NYC as well.
I wish you the best of luck! I’ve found this sor of thing really hard…people just can’t get their minds around economic data. I’ve spent quite a bit of time working to convince people that the balance of payments has to sum to zero, so I know what you’ve taken on. But there’s a high value added, so please keep trying.
Aside from a talk, you would provide a service if you put up a definitve document or powerpoint on these topics that we could all point to when the subject comes up.
Danny Bachman
Director, Forecasting Evaluation and Methods
IHS Global insight
Thanks. My supply will be driven by the demand.
Mike, any chance you could either post a video of your talk online or notes from your talk? Some of us regional journalists can’t make it to DC or NYC but still try to cover economics effectively and accurately..